These figures fit with attempts by GoldmanSachs, a bank, to estimate the relationship between the severity of lockdownsand their effect on output. It finds, roughly, that an Italian-style lockdownis associated with a GDP decline of 25%. Measures to control the virus whileeither keeping the economy running reasonably smoothly, as in South Korea, orreopening it, as in China, are associated with a GDP reduction in the region of10%. That chimes with data which suggest that if Americans chose to avoidperson-to-person proximity of the length of an arm or less, occupations worthapproximately 10% of national output would become unviable.
这些数字与高盛得出的结果相吻合。这家投资银行估计了封城措施的严厉程度与它们对经济产出的影响之间的关系，经粗略计算后发现，意大利式的封城措施与25%的GDP下降相关联。像韩国那样在控制疫情的同时保持经济基本平稳运行或像中国那样在控制住疫情后重新开放经济的措施与本地区10%的GDP下降相关联。有数据表明，如果美国人选择避免与人近距离接触，那么贡献了全美产出约10%的职位将难以为继。这与高盛的发现相吻合。
The “90% economy” thus created will be, bydefinition, smaller than that which came before. But its strangeness will be morethan a matter of size. There will undoubtedly be relief, fellow feeling, andnewly felt or expressed esteem for those who have worked to keep people safe.But there will also be residual fear, pervasive uncertainty, a lack ofinnovative fervour and deepened inequalities. The fraction of life that ismissing will colour people’s experience and behaviour in ways that will not beoffset by the happy fact that most of what matters is still available andticking over. In a world where the office is open but the pub is not,qualitative differences in the way life feels will be at least as significantas the drop in output.
这就造成了“九成经济”，顾名思义，经济的规模将小于从前。但其中的不寻常之处不仅仅是规模大小。毫无疑问，疫情过后人们会有解脱和同舟共济的感觉，并将重新对那些努力保护人们安全的人产生或表达敬意。但同时也会有残留的恐惧感、普遍的不确定性、匮乏的创新激情，以及加剧的不平等。尽管大部分生活必需品还在供应和缓慢运转，但这带来的宽慰并不能弥补生活中缺失的那一小部分事物对人们的体验和行为产生的影响。在一个照常上班却不能照常去酒吧的世界里，人们会感受到相当大的生活品质的落差，至少与经济产出下滑的程度相当。
The plight of the pub demonstrates that the90% economy will not be something that can be fixed by fiat. Allowing pubs—andother places of social pleasure—to open counts for little if people do not wantto visit them. Many people will have to leave the home in order to work, butthey may well feel less comfortable doing so to have a good time. A poll byYouGov on behalf of The Economist finds that over a third of Americans think itwill be “several months” before it will be safe to reopen businesses asnormal—which suggests that if businesses do reopen some, at least, may stayaway.
酒吧行业的困境表明，“九成经济”的问题将无法通过政令来解决。如果人们不愿意去酒吧和其他社交娱乐场所，那么即使开放这些场所也没什么用。很多人以后还是得走出家门去上班，但他们很可能会觉得不安心，也就没法保持愉快的心情。YouGov为本刊做的一项民意调查发现，超过三分之一的美国人认为，还要“再过几个月”，企业重新正常营业才够安全。这表明，即使企业重新开门营业，至少有一部分人可能还是不会光顾.
口译： 翻译资格考试二级口译模拟题
笔译： 翻译资格考试二级笔译模拟题
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