非洲：寻求普惠增长之路（节选）
The Pursuit of Inclusive Growth in Africa
国际货币基金组织副总裁 张涛
Zhang Tao, IMF Deputy Managing Director
金砖国家峰会
BRICS Summit
2018年7月24日，南非
South Africa, July 24, 2018
三、释放非洲的机遇——未来的道路
III. Unleashing opportunity in Africa – the way forward
那么，撒哈拉以南非洲地区如何能够利用其人口潜力，实现可持续发展目标，并创造步伐更快、包容性程度更高的经济增长?
So how can the region capitalize on its demographic potential to attain the SDGs and achieve higher and more inclusive growth?
我认为，为实现上述目标，有关各方必须秉持多边合作精神。本地区的国家应处理好本国事务，付出自己的努力;发展伙伴则应提供帮助，确保“可持续”的融资来源。
In my view, this will require upholding the multilateral spirit of cooperation by all parties involved. Countries in the region should do their part by getting their house in order; and development partners should help by ensuring “sustainable” sources of financing.
这在实践中意味着什么呢?对于本地区国家而言，这意味着降低宏观经济脆弱性，提高增长潜力。我认为这方面有两个重要的优先任务，一个是短期的，另一个是长期的。
What does this mean in practice? For countries in the region, it means reducing macroeconomic vulnerabilities and raising growth potential. And here I see two important priorities. One for the short term; the other for the long term.
第一个优先任务是降低债务脆弱性。这项任务迫在眉睫。过去五年里，公共债务比率大幅上升，从平均相当于GDP的30%上升到目前的50%以上。
The first priority is to reduce vulnerabilities from debt. It is urgent. Public debt ratios have increased markedly over the past five years – from an average of 30 percent of GDP to over 50 percent currently.
在一些国家，债务的增加是由发展和基础设施需求所致。在另一些国家，是受到2014年石油价格大幅下跌的影响。而在其他一些国家，则是由于表外负债向公共部门的转移。
In some countries, the increase in debt is driven by development and infrastructure needs. In other countries, it reflects the impact of the large decline in oil prices in 2014. And in others, it was the migration of off-balance sheet liabilities to the public sector.
如果非洲债务不断增长的趋势继续下去，债务上升带来的更高利息成本将导致教育、医疗和基础设施领域的资源流失。
If the growing debt trends in Africa continue, rising interest costs from higher debt would divert resources away from education, health and infrastructure.
因此，优先任务是降低债务脆弱性。重点应放在提高国内公共收入和改善债务管理等方面。这将为物质和人力资本投资以及公共社会支出创造空间。
The priority therefore is to reduce vulnerabilities from debt. The emphasis should be on domestic revenue mobilization and improved debt management. This will create space for investment in physical and human capital and social spending.
本地区许多国家的税收征管都有显着改善。在三分之二的国家，税收收入高于GDP的13%这一临界水平，而1995年，这一比例仅为三分之一。然而，税收收入低于GDP 13%的国家仍超过16个。
Many countries in the region have seen significant improvements in collections. Tax revenues are above the tipping point of 13 percent of GDP in two-thirds of the countries, compared to just one-third in 1995. Still, this leaves more than 16 countries with less than 13 percent of GDP in tax revenue.
与此同时，石油出口国的收入大幅下降，从2012年占GDP的31%降至2016年的18%。显然，需要持续重视提高国内公共收入。
At the same time, oil exporters have seen a sharp decline in their revenue intake, from 31 percent of GDP in 2012 to 18 percent in 2016. Clearly, the emphasis on domestic revenue mobilization needs to be sustained.
提高长期增长的第二个优先任务是重振私人投资。
The second priority to raise long-run growth is to revive private investment.
多年来，低水平的私人投资被公共支出所代替。然而，面对日益加剧的公共债务脆弱性，尚不清楚这一趋势能够持续多久。一些国家采取公私合作安排，但这些措施的成功程度不同。
For many years, low levels of private investment were offset by public expenditures. Yet, faced with growing public debt vulnerabilities, it is unclear how long this trend can continue. Some countries have pursued public-private partnerships, but these efforts have had varying success.
与此同时，中国的“一带一路”倡议和二十国集团的“非洲契约”等倡议为支持私人投资提供了机会。这包括有助于鼓励外国直接投资和支持公私合作关系的制度改革。
At the same time, initiatives such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the G20 Compact with Africa provide an opportunity to support private investment. This includes institutional reforms that can encourage foreign direct investment and support public-private partnerships.
但为了有效实施这些举措，撒哈拉以南非洲国家需要从公共投资向私人投资过渡。为此，需要维持宏观经济稳定，并改善监管和破产框架。另外，应扩大非洲内部贸易，深化信贷获得渠道。
But for these initiatives to be effective, sub-Saharan African countries should ensure a transition from public to private investment. This requires maintaining macroeconomic stability and improving regulatory and insolvency frameworks. It also means increasing intra-African trade and deepening access to credit.
在普惠金融方面，非洲可以为世界提供重要的经验。我们最近公布了一份文件，综合阐述非洲16个试点国家在实施有关政策扩大信贷获得渠道方面的经验。[1]
Here, Africa can offer the world important lessons on financial inclusion. We have recently published a paper that pulls together lessons from 16 pilot countries in Africa on policies to expand access to credit. [1]
为促进公共投资向私人投资过渡，还需采用其他不会产生债务的方式为本地区庞大的基础设施需求融资。据非洲开发银行估计，这些需求每年达到1300—1700亿美元。此类融资应能最大限度地降低本地区经济体面临的风险。
Facilitating this handover from public to private investment also requires alternative, non-debt creating ways of financing the region’s large infrastructure needs. By some estimates (AfDB), these needs amount to US$130-170 billion per year. Such financing should minimize risks to economies in the region.
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