自2002年底起，由于需求拉动，中国“高投入、高能耗、高污染”的产业投资持续增加。按照目前的工业结构，如果高技术产业增加值比重提高一个百分点，冶金、化工等高耗能行业比重相应下降一个百分点，万元GDP能耗可降低1.3个百分点。有关专家预计，随着高能耗企业技术改造的加强，产业结构调整步伐的加快，未来几年中国节能降耗的成效将会更加明显。但也有人指出,中国的工业化、城镇化进程加快将加大城市能源需求的压力。
未来五年中国城市人均住宅面积会增加将近30%，达到人均26平方米，农村人均住房面积增加大约20%，达到人均30平方米。每百户城市家庭的空调数将达81台，增加1.6倍，百户家庭的汽车拥有量达3.4辆，增加5.7倍。这些都会导致水泥、钢铁、玻璃等高耗能产品大幅度增长。
另外，按目前的能源消费需求，即使在政府关停和淘汰落后产能，加大高耗能企业节能工作的情况下，未来五年，煤炭的消费量仍将增加接近10亿吨。这些都是对中国达到降低能耗20%的目标的极大挑战。
Since the end of 2002, driven by growing domestic demand, China kept increasing investment in industries featured high input, high energy consumption and heavy pollution. Given the country’s current industrial structure, a 1.3-percentage-point drop of energy consumption per 10,000 yuan of the GDP can be realized provided that the proportion of added value of hi-tech industries grow by 1 percentage point and that of high energy-consuming sectors like metallurgical and chemical industries falls by 1 percentage point.
Some experts predicted that China would see more distinct results in energy conservation with the strengthening of technological renovation of high energy-consuming enterprises and the quickened pace of industrial restructuring.
However, some people warned that the acceleration of China’s industrialization and urbanization would further increase the pressure on energy supply in urban areas.
Per-capita housing in China’s urban areas is expected to surge nearly 30 percent to 26 square meters in the next five years and that in rural areas will grow 20 percent to 30 square meters. Air-conditioners owned by every 100 urban households will increase 1.6 times to 81 sets and cars owned by every 100 urban households will rise 6.7 times to 3.4 units. This will lead to a robust jump of high energy-consuming products, such as cement, steel, glass and others.
Moreover, China’s coal consumption may approach to 1 billion tons during the next five years, according to China’s current demand for energy, even if the government closes down or eliminates backward productivity and intensifies energy saving of high energy-consuming enterprises. All posing a great challenge to China in its effort to meet the goal of cutting its energy consumption by 20 percent.
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