China is increasingly likely to take new action to bolster growth, economists said, after figures released on Friday showed that inflation in the country remains near its lowest levels in five years.
香港——上周五公布的数据显示，中国的通胀率仍然接近五年来的最低水平。经济学家表示，中国采取新举措来促进增长的可能性越来越大。
Sluggish economic growth and falling prices for oil and other key commodities are resulting in weakening inflation in some of the world’s biggest economies. On Wednesday, data from the eurozone highlighted the risk of deflation after prices fell 0.2 percent in December, turning negative for the first time since 2009, during the global financial crisis.
经济增长低迷，石油和其他主要大宗商品价格下跌，导致全球最大的一些经济体通胀下降。上周三，欧元区的数据显示去年12月的价格水平下降了0.2%，是自2009年全球金融危机以来第一次出现负增长，突显了通缩风险。
In China, prices are falling because of weak domestic demand and the downturn in commodity markets. For example, prices for coal, iron ore and copper are at their lowest levels in at least five years, and China is the world’s biggest consumer of all three.
在中国，价格下降的原因是国内需求疲软，以及大宗商品市场低迷。例如，煤炭、铁矿石和铜的价格处于至少五年来的最低水平，而对于这三种大宗商品，中国都是全球最大的消费国。
Consumer prices in China rose a meager 1.5 percent in December from a year earlier, the official statistics agency said Friday. The slight uptick from November’s 1.5 percent increase was because of a spike in prices of fresh fruit and vegetables. Producer prices continued to fall for the 34th consecutive month, declining 3.3 percent from a year earlier, driven by declining commodity prices.
上周五，官方统计机构表示，12月中国居民消费价格较上年同期小幅上扬了1.5%。11月的增幅是1.4%，这种小幅上扬得益于新鲜水果和蔬菜价格的上涨。在大宗商品价格下降带动下，生产者价格连续第34个月下跌，较上年同期下降了3.3%。
The easing inflationary pressure gives the central bank more room to attempt to lift growth and experiment with financial liberalization. In November, the central bank, the People’s Bank of China, cut benchmark interest rates for the first time since the summer of 2012. Analysts expect more rate cuts to follow in the coming months, as China’s economy is forecast to have grown in 2014 at its slowest pace in over two decades. Final figures for last year’s gross domestic product are scheduled to be released on Jan. 20.
通胀压力的缓解，让央行在尝试促增长和实验金融自由化上获得了更多空间。11月份，中国人民银行，即中国的央行，自2012年以来第一次下调基准利率。分析师预期，未来几个月还会宣布进一步降息，因为中国2014年的经济增长率有可能是20年来最慢的。中国去年国内生产总值(GDP)的最终数据预计将于1月20日公布。
he growth outlook varies considerably across the world’s major economies. The recovery in the United States continues to see strong growth and declining unemployment, but Japan is in a recession and the eurozone economy grew at an anemic 0.2 percent annualized pace in the third quarter compared with the second quarter.
全球各主要经济体的增长前景存在着相当大的差异。美国的复苏将继续推动经济的强劲增长和失业率下降，日本则处于经济衰退之中，而在欧元区，第三季度与第二季度相比，经济的年化增长率只有区区0.2%。
In China, the picture is more complicated. The economy is expected to have grown last year at its slowest annual pace since 1990, but forecast at 7.4 percent, the increase in China’s G.D.P. remains the fastest of any major economy.
中国的情况则比较复杂。预期去年的经济增长是自1990年以来最缓慢的，但预测会达到7.4%，中国的国内生产总值的增长仍然是主要经济体中最快的。
But the continued weak price increases signal a potential risk that China could tip into deflation, where an economy becomes trapped in broad and persistent price declines that depresses spending and curtails employment, curbing overall growth.
但价格上涨的持续疲软是一个信号，表明中国可能会转向通货紧缩。这是指一个经济体的价格普遍持续下滑，导致开支被压缩，就业机会受限制，整体经济增长遭到抑制。
Wary of these risks, economists generally expect the central bank to respond with more interest rate cuts. They are divided, however, over whether this would also include a move to allow banks to lend out more of the cash that they are currently required to hold on reserve — a reduction of the so-called reserve requirement ratio.
经济学家对这些风险保持着警惕，他们普遍预期央行将推出更多的降息举措，来减小这些风险。但对于是否也应该让银行更多放贷，经济学家的意见并不统一。目前，银行的一部分可贷出资金以存款准备金的形式存在，降低准备金率可以带来更多贷款。
“Chinese authorities will need to use both structural reform measures as well as monetary policy tools to head off the risk of deflation, especially when domestic demand remains weak and commodity and energy prices continue to fall,” he wrote, adding that such structural measures could include making China’s water, energy and utility prices more market driven.
“中国当局将会需要使用结构性改革措施，以及货币政策工具，来阻止通缩风险，特别是在国内需求依然疲软，大宗商品和能源价格继续下降的时候，”他写道。他称这种结构性措施可能包括更多地让市场来驱动中国的水、能源和公用事业价格。
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