英译汉
Multilateral Cooperation Is Key to Resolving Global Financial Imbalances
The current surge in private capital flows has occurred in the midst of much-improved domestic policies and global financial conditions compared with those that prevailed during the capital flows surge of the l990s. 1 This time around, governments have so far generally managed to avoid excessive expansion of aggregate demand, large current-account deficits, and sharp appreciations of the real exchange rate. However, the policy agenda for managing capital flows is broad and complex, and considerable challenges remain.
Progress has been made in simplifying the very complex web of capital controls and exchange rate restrictions imposed by many countries. 2 But the gradual opening of capital accounts must be accompanied by a further strengthening of macroeconomic policies, the development of local capital markets and the institutions needed to regulate them, and the establishment of a system of risk management robust enough to respond to the needs of a more flexible exchange rate and open capital account. 3 Liberalization of the capital account once implemented is difficult to reverse. A return to capital controls should be seen only as a policy of last resort, to be used to dampen excessive exchange rate volatility or to moderate large inflows of capital when other policies, such as interest rates and intervention in foreign exchange markets, prove fruitless.
Despite the considerable improvement in policies in recent years, the surge in capital flows still presents substantial risks to developing countries. Future risks to economic and financial stability will likely take a different form and character4 than those encountered in the past - and may expose institutional and macroeconomic weaknesses that cannot be anticipated at this juncture. One warning sign of potential troubles has been the surge in portfolio inflows that has been associated with a dramatic escalation of stock market prices and valuations in many developing countries5, particularly in Asia, raising the risk of asset price bubbles. Other signs of possible trouble are appreciated exchange rates and current account deficits in some Eastern European countries. The impact of individual risks could be magnified if several were to occur simultaneously.
Developing-country policies must be reinforced by renewed international efforts to promote stability and maintain a financial environment conducive to a balanced expansion and deployment6 of capital flows in developing countries. One major risk to stability is the growing imbalance in global payments and the associated market anxiety/ about the possibility of a disorderly adjustment of the imbalance through sudden changes in exchange rates and global interest rates. Such changes could destabilize and disrupt international financial markets, which would cause all countries to suffer.
Although a coordinated policy of intervention in foreign currency markets is neither desirable nor feasible, a degree of multilateral cooperation is needed to address the current global imbalances. That approach, based on the mutual interests of deficit and surplus countries, should reflect the structural asymmetry between international reserve currencies and other currencies. At its center must be consensus on a blend of adjustments8 adequate to rebalance global aggregate demand without causing a global recession. Ordinarily, policy coordination among key players9 is unnecessary, because floating exchange rates, accompanying l0 monetary policies, and independent central banks do their job to facilitate adjustment to any shocks hitting the world economy. 11 But when the sustainability of the sources of financel2 for global payment imbalances is in doubt, as it is at present, multilateral cooperation to prevent sudden and disorderly market reactions becomes highly desirable13, especially if the growing global imbalances create pressure for protectionist trade policies in some countries.
Developing countries, in particular, have much to gain from multilateral cooperation, and much to lose from its absence14, and they would suffer disproportionately if instability were induced and a disorderly unwinding of global financial imbalances ensued. The world economy is moving toward a multipolar international monetary system in which the monetary and financial policies of the United States, Euro Area, Japan, and several key emerging market economies, including China, all exert substantial influence. Policymakers in emerging market economies should therefore strive to strengthen institutions and promote policies and mechanisms that will improve their ability to navigate in a world of increasingly integrated and interdependent financial and production systems. 15
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