U.S.job growth was surprisingly strong in 2018, but don’t expect that to happen
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The federal government’s final employment report for 2018 is forecast to show employers added 180,000 jobs in December to bring the annual increase to 2.45 million, the most since 2015 一 but the monthly estimate is the lowest median projection since last January.Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect that to slow in 2019 to an average monthly pace of 156,000, for a total of 1.87 million, followed by 1.44 million in 2020, when President Trump is up for reelection.
Other key labor measures aren’t expected to improve far beyond current levels by year end.Economists project the jobless rate held steady last month at 3.7%, the lowest since 1969, and will edge down to 3.5% at the end of 2019.Wage gains last month are expected to have eased to 3% year-over-year from a post-recession high of 3.1% and then modestly reaccelerate during the year.
The prospect of less-robust job growth is the latest in a slew of risks stacking up for the world’s largest economy.It comes alongside warning signs from housing and manufacturing, among other industries, and projected weakening in both U.S.and global growth this year.A waning boost from Trump ,s tax cuts and government spending will add to policymakers? challenges.
“The economy accelerated in 2018 and employment with it for a pretty simple and obvious reason: We had a pretty big fiscal stimulus,M said Lewis Alexander, chief U.S.economist at Nomura Securities International.“The boost to growth from fiscal policy is not sustainable” he said, adding that he expects slowing of the economic expansion and employment growth.
Data released Thursday by the ADP Research Institute indicated that companies in December added the most workers to U.S.payrolls in almost two years.Private payrolls grew by 271,000, exceeding forecasts, after a downward-revised 157,000 advance in November.A Labor Department report Thursday showed filings for unemployment benefits rose to a four-week high of 231,000 in the week that ended Dec.29, exceeding the median estimate of economists in Bloomberg’s survey.
Barclays sees payroll growth slowing from an average pace of about 200,000 a month last year to about 160,000 a month this year.“Our outlook for slower growth in activity in 2019 relative to last year on account of a smaller impulse from fiscal stimulus leads us to expect less employment growth this year,” chief U.S.economist Michael Gapen said in a note.The jobs report for November showed a payroll increase of 155,000, a tally that missed all estimates in Bloomberg’s survey calling for a gain of 198,000.The same report revised the October reading down to 237,000, from 250,000.
Maintaining strength in hiring may depend on continued contributions in key sectors such as manufacturing, which even before the December figures had added more jobs than any year since 1997.A Labor Department report due out Friday is forecast to show factory jobs rose by 20,000, which would bring the full-year increase to 269,000.Mining and natural resources jobs are within reach of their best gain since 2011, and construction is holding up.For private services jobs, more than half the 1.68 million hires on the books for 2018 have been in education and health services, and professional and business services.
Federal Reserve policymakers have stayed sanguine on the labor market, with Chairman Jerome Powell noting that increasing tightness should help keep inflation around the central bank’s 2% objective.Fed officials at their final 2018 meeting kept their end- of-2019 jobless rate forecast at 3.5%.
But as downbeat reports stack up, pressure increases on the Fed to signal a pause on interest-rate increases.Policymakers have said they intend to slow the pace of hikes this year.As they raised rates in December, they penciled in just two hikes for 2019, the median projection of governors and district presidents shows.That’s still more than many investors anticipate, with rate futures pointing to no moves in 2019 and a potential rate cut next year.
单选题第1题What’s the main idea of the passage?（）。
A.Economists forecast less job growth in America in 2019.
B.U.S.payrolls grew rapidly in 2018.
C.The U.S.jobless rate will keep steadily low in 2019.
D.Maintaining strength in job growth depends on key sectors.
参考答案：A
答案解析：主旨题。全文围绕美国就业增长的问题展开讨论，用各种调查报告和数据 以及专家的观点来佐证在未来一年增长的势头会减弱，故正确答案为A。
单选题第2题What can we infer from the federal government’s employment report for 2018?（）。
A.The job growth was influenced strongly by economic headwinds.
B.The employees added 180,000 jobs in December.
C.Though the annual increase of jobs grew, the monthly projection kept low.
D.The annual increase of job positions had broken the record.
参考答案：C
答案解析：推断题。从第2段第1句可知，联邦政府2018年的最终就业报告显示了12月 就业岗位的增长，使年度增长为2015年以来的最大增幅，但月度预测却是去年1月 以来的最低中位数，故正确答案为C。
单选题第3题The lowest jobless rate since 1969 is ______.
A.3%
B.3.1%
C.3.5%
D.3.7%
参考答案：D
答案解析：细节题。第3段第2句，上个月失业率稳定在3.7%，为1969年以来的最低水平，故正确答案为D。
单选题第4题What does the author possibly mean by using “a waning boost” underlined in Paragraph 4?（）。
A.Trump’s tax cuts and government spending can boost job growth.
B.Trump’s tax cuts and government spending can no longer give strong impetus to job growth.
C.Trump’s tax cuts and government spending have a striking effect on global growth.
D.Trump’s tax cuts and government spending will add strength to U.S.economy.
参考答案：B
答案解析：语义题。作者使用“a waning boost”意在表达特朗普的减税政策和政府的开销对就业增长的推动力逐渐减弱，故正确答案为B。
单选题第5题According to Lewis Alexander, what’s the direct reason for employment increase in 2018?（）。
A.The economic expansion continues.
B.The employers created many job positions.
C.The U.S.government had favorable fiscal policy.
D.The global economy provides continuing support.
参考答案：C
答案解析：细节题。根据题干锁定关键词在第5段，Lewis Alexander明确指出就业增长 的明显原因是“我们有相当大的财政刺激”，故正确答案为C。
单选题第6题The figure from a Labor Department report is cited in Paragraph 6 to ______.
A.show that the unemployment number is slightly lower than private payrolls
B.indicate that despite of the increase of U.S.payrolls, the unemployment rose
C.prove that people getting benefits from unemployment are more than those working for private companies
D.explain how many files they needed to deal with for unemployment benefits application
参考答案：B
答案解析：推断题。定位关键词在第6段第3句，结合上下文可知，劳工部的报告数据是为了指出，虽然就业人数增加了，但是申请失业救济金的人数也创下新高，故正确答案为B。
单选题第7题Paragraph 7 attempts to show______.
A.the inaccuracy of Bloomberg’s survey
B.how slow the growth might be for the economic activities
C.the report should be revised in order to keep up with the situation
D.some authoritative opinions over this year’s employment growth
参考答案：D
答案解析：推断题。第7段引用了Barclays的预测、经济学家Michael Gapen的报告和11月份就业报告的数据，均为了证明一些权 威人士或机构对今年就业增长的预测（增长放缓），故正确答案为D。
单选题第8题Which of the following sectors CANNOT contribute much to strength in hiring?（）。
A.Agriculture.
B.Manufacturing.
C.Education.
D.Health service.
参考答案：A
答案解析：细节题。从第8段的内容可知，保持就业的强劲势头取决于一些关键行业的 持续贡献，未提及农业，故正确答案为A。
单选题第9题______is similar in meaning to the underlined word “sanguine” in Paragraph 9.
A.Ruddy
B.Reddish
C.Optimistic
D.Passionate
参考答案：C
答案解析：语义题。“sanguine”在文中表示乐观的意思，与C选项语义相近，故正确 答案为C。
单选题第10题What’s the author’s attitude towards U.S.job growth in 2019?（）。
A.Irony.
B.Indifferent.
C.Positive.
D.Negative.
参考答案：D
答案解析：态度题。作者在全文开篇就用祈使句表明立场（…don’t expect that to happen again this year）,“that”指前文提到的美国就业增长势头强劲，由此可见作者对美国2019年的就业增长持不乐观态度，故正确答案为D。
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